Solar Could Supply 40% of U.S. Electricity by 2035 Biden Proposal Says

The Biden administration’s proposal envisions solar photovoltaics providing roughly 40 % of U.S. electricity by 2035, a target that would require massive deployment, grid upgrades, and storage solutions.

Quick Answer

Under the Biden plan, solar power is projected to generate about 40 % of the United States’ electricity by 2035. Achieving this share relies on continued cost declines in photovoltaic (PV) modules, large‑scale deployment of utility‑scale solar farms, expanded rooftop installations, and a modernized transmission grid paired with multi‑gigawatt‑hour battery storage. Scientific modelling from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows the pathway is technically feasible, but it depends on sustained policy support, supply‑chain resilience, and regional transmission upgrades. Uncertainty remains around the exact timing of storage cost reductions and the pace of permitting reforms.

Key Takeaways

• Solar accounted for about 3.4 % of U.S. electricity generation in 2022 (EIA).
• Costs for utility‑scale PV have fallen roughly 85 % since 2010 (IEA 2023).
• Reaching 40 % by 2035 would require adding roughly 1,200 GW of solar capacity.
• Grid modernization and large‑scale storage are the primary technical bottlenecks.
• Policy certainty, workforce development, and equitable access are essential for a just transition.

What Is Solar Could Supply 40% of U.S. Electricity by 2035 Biden Proposal Says?

The proposal is a policy framework announced by the Biden administration in 2023 that sets a national target for solar photovoltaics (PV) to provide 40 % of total electricity generation by the year 2035. It is not a law, but a set of coordinated actions that include increased federal incentives, streamlined permitting, research funding for storage, and investments in transmission corridors. The target differs from broader renewable‑energy goals because it isolates solar as a distinct pathway, reflecting the rapid cost declines and scalability of PV technology.

How Does It Work?

1. Photovoltaic Conversion

Solar panels contain semiconductor cells that absorb photons and generate electron‑hole pairs. When an electric field is present, these carriers flow as direct current (DC). Inverters convert the DC into alternating current (AC) compatible with the grid.

2. Scale‑up of Utility‑Scale and Distributed Solar

Utility‑scale farms (>10 MW) are sited in high‑insolation regions such as the Southwest, while distributed rooftop systems grow in suburban and urban areas. Bifacial modules and tracking systems increase energy yield by 10–20 % compared with fixed‑tilt panels.

3. Transmission and Grid Integration

Because the sunniest locations are far from major load centers, high‑capacity transmission lines (e.g., HVDC corridors) are needed to move power eastward. Grid operators must also adopt advanced forecasting and real‑time dispatch tools.

4. Energy Storage

Battery systems store excess solar generation for use during night or cloudy periods. Lithium‑ion costs have dropped 55 % since 2015 (DOE 2021), making multi‑hour storage increasingly affordable.

What Does the Evidence Show?

Long‑term monitoring by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NLR) indicates that solar capacity factors in the U.S. have risen from 18 % in 2010 to over 22 % in 2022, reflecting both technology improvements and better siting. The IEA’s World Energy Outlook (2023) models a scenario where solar reaches 40 % of U.S. electricity by 2035 under a “rapid‑deployment” pathway, assuming continued cost declines and aggressive policy support. A systematic review of U.S. grid studies (NREL 2022) concludes that integrating 500–600 GW of solar is feasible with current storage technologies, but surpassing 1,000 GW would require breakthroughs in long‑duration storage and transmission planning.

Main Causes or Drivers

Policy Incentives

Federal Investment Tax Credit (ITC) extensions, state renewable portfolio standards, and DOE research grants drive investment.

Economic Competitiveness

Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for utility‑scale solar fell to $32 / MWh in 2022, cheaper than new natural‑gas plants (EIA).

Technological Innovation

Bifacial cells, perovskite‑silicon tandem modules, and AI‑based forecasting improve efficiency and reduce curtailment.

Climate‑Related Risks

Increasing frequency of heatwaves and droughts raises the value of clean, dispatchable power, encouraging utilities to diversify away from fossil fuels.

Environmental and Human Impacts

Environmental Impacts

Solar generates electricity without direct CO₂ emissions, contributing to U.S. greenhouse‑gas reduction goals. Land‑use impacts can be mitigated by co‑locating solar on degraded sites, rooftops, and agricultural “agrivoltaic” systems. Lifecycle analyses show that the carbon payback time for modern PV is 1–2 years, far shorter than the 25‑year system life.

Human Health and Social Impacts

Reduced reliance on coal and natural gas improves air quality, decreasing premature mortality linked to particulate matter (PM₂.₅). However, construction jobs may shift geographically, requiring workforce retraining in regions dependent on fossil‑fuel extraction.

Economic and Infrastructure Impacts

Solar deployment creates jobs in manufacturing, installation, and maintenance. The Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) reported 255,000 U.S. jobs in 2022. Large‑scale projects also generate tax revenue for local governments but can raise concerns about visual impact and land rights.

Regional Differences

Sunshine intensity varies: the Southwest (Arizona, Nevada) receives >6 kWh m⁻² day⁻¹, supporting utility‑scale farms, while the Northeast has lower insolation (~3.5 kWh m⁻² day⁻¹) and relies more on distributed rooftop solar and storage. Transmission bottlenecks are most acute in the Western Interconnection, where new HVDC lines are under study. In contrast, the Midwest benefits from existing high‑voltage corridors that can be upgraded more quickly.

What Scientists Know With High Confidence

• Solar photovoltaic technology can convert sunlight to electricity with efficiencies above 22 % in commercial modules.
• Costs for utility‑scale PV and lithium‑ion batteries have declined sharply over the past decade, making large‑scale solar economically competitive with fossil generation.
• CO₂ emissions from solar‑generated electricity are negligible compared with coal‑ or gas‑fired plants.
• Air‑quality benefits from replacing fossil fuels are well documented in epidemiological studies.

What Remains Uncertain

Key uncertainties include the speed at which long‑duration storage (e.g., flow batteries, hydrogen) will achieve cost parity, the effectiveness of streamlined permitting at the state level, and the social acceptance of large transmission projects. Modeling studies differ on the exact amount of storage needed because they use varying assumptions about demand growth and weather variability. Continued monitoring of pilot storage installations will reduce these gaps.

Common Misconceptions

Misconception: Solar can replace baseload power without any storage.

Reality: Solar output is variable; without storage or complementary resources (e.g., wind, hydro), periods of low sunlight would require backup generation.

Misconception: The 40 % target means the sun will power every home directly.

Reality: The target refers to the share of total electricity generated nationwide, not a guarantee that each household receives solar power.

Misconception: Solar farms always destroy wildlife habitats.

Reality: Proper siting can minimize habitat loss; many projects incorporate wildlife corridors and use already disturbed lands.

Solutions and Limitations

Key strategies include:

• Policy stability: Extending the Investment Tax Credit and creating uniform permitting standards can lower investment risk, but political shifts may alter timelines.
• Grid modernization: Smart inverters and flexible AC transmission systems improve integration, yet the capital cost of new transmission is high and often faces local opposition.
• Storage scaling: Deploying utility‑scale batteries reduces curtailment, but current lithium‑ion supply chains rely on scarce minerals and have recycling challenges.
• Workforce development: Training programs expand skilled labor, though transition assistance is needed for workers displaced from fossil‑fuel sectors.

What Individuals, Communities, and Governments Can Do

What Individuals Can Do

• Consider rooftop solar installations where feasible; many states offer net‑metering that credits excess generation.
• Participate in local energy‑justice forums to ensure equitable siting of solar projects.

What Communities and Organizations Can Do

• Develop community solar programs that allow renters and low‑income households to share the benefits of larger solar farms.
• Partner with local utilities to identify optimal sites for distributed storage.

What Governments Can Do

• Maintain and expand the federal Investment Tax Credit for at least the next decade.
• Fund research into long‑duration storage technologies through the DOE’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.
• Streamline permitting by adopting a “one‑stop” review process at the state level.
• Invest in transmission upgrades that connect high‑solar regions with load centers.

Closing Synthesis

The Biden administration’s 40 % solar‑by‑2035 target rests on solid scientific and economic foundations: falling PV costs, demonstrated efficiency gains, and clear climate benefits. High‑confidence findings confirm that solar can be a major, low‑carbon electricity source, while remaining uncertainties center on storage economics and grid expansion. By coupling policy certainty with targeted investments in storage, transmission, and workforce training, the United States can move toward a solar‑rich grid that delivers environmental, health, and economic gains while respecting regional differences and equity considerations.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the 40 % solar target mean for U.S. electricity generation?

The target means that, by 2035, solar photovoltaics would generate roughly 40 % of the total electricity produced across the United States, not that every household will receive solar power directly.

How much solar capacity must be added to reach the 40 % goal?

Based on 2022 generation data, achieving 40 % would require adding about 1,200 gigawatts of solar capacity, roughly eight times the existing capacity of 150 GW.

What are the main technical challenges to scaling solar to 40 %?

Key challenges include expanding high‑voltage transmission from sunny regions, deploying multi‑gigawatt‑hour battery storage, and ensuring reliable forecasting to balance variable output.

Can solar power replace baseload plants without storage?

No. Solar output varies with sunlight, so without storage or complementary resources, periods of low irradiance would still require backup generation.

What actions can individuals take to support the solar transition?

Individuals can install rooftop solar where possible, join community‑solar projects, and engage in local energy‑justice initiatives that promote equitable solar development.